RBNZ holds OCR at 2.25% on Governor Breman's casting vote as committee splits 3-3 on a hike
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, May 27, in a decision settled only by Governor Anna Breman's casting vote after the Monetary Policy Committee split 3-3 — internal member.
At a glance
- The RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee held the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% on May 27, 2026, with Governor Anna Breman using her casting vote after a 3-3 split.
- Three external members (Carl Hansen, Hayley Gourley, Prasanna Gai) voted for a 25-basis-point hike; three internal members (Breman, Karen Silk, Paul Conway) voted to hold.
- The May 2026 Monetary Policy Statement is the first to publish individual members' votes when consensus is not reached.
- Annual inflation of 3.1% in the March quarter is projected to peak at 4.3% in the September 2026 quarter before returning to the 2% midpoint in mid-2027.
- The updated OCR projection rises to 2.51% by September 2026 and 3.07% by June 2027, with a terminal rate of 3.28% in June 2029.
VERDICT — CONFIRMED
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, May 27, in a decision settled only by Governor Anna Breman's casting vote after the Monetary Policy Committee split 3-3 — internal members Breman, Karen Silk and Paul Conway voting to hold, and external members Carl Hansen, Hayley Gourley and Prasanna Gai voting for a 25-basis-point increase. The May Monetary Policy Statement is the first to make committee members' votes public when consensus is not reached.
The committee said the Middle East conflict will keep inflation above the 1-3% target range this year and slow the economic recovery: annual inflation was 3.1% in the March quarter and is projected to peak at 4.3% in the September 2026 quarter before returning to the 2% midpoint in mid-2027. Despite the hold, the MPC said higher interest rates would be needed this year, and the updated OCR track is markedly more aggressive than February's — 2.51% by September 2026 (from 2.28%), 3.07% by June 2027 (from 2.62%) and a terminal rate of 3.28% in June 2029, per interest.co.nz.
The New Zealand dollar jumped on the release, and Breman said members agreed hikes are coming but disagreed on timing.
Why it matters
a G10 central bank openly split on hiking into a supply shock crystallises the global policy dilemma — and the newly published vote gives traders a fresh reaction function to price.
Key facts on file
- The RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee held the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% on May 27, 2026, with Governor Anna Breman using her casting vote after a 3-3 split.
- Three external members (Carl Hansen, Hayley Gourley, Prasanna Gai) voted for a 25-basis-point hike; three internal members (Breman, Karen Silk, Paul Conway) voted to hold.
- The May 2026 Monetary Policy Statement is the first to publish individual members' votes when consensus is not reached.
- Annual inflation of 3.1% in the March quarter is projected to peak at 4.3% in the September 2026 quarter before returning to the 2% midpoint in mid-2027.
- The updated OCR projection rises to 2.51% by September 2026 and 3.07% by June 2027, with a terminal rate of 3.28% in June 2029.
- The New Zealand dollar jumped following the decision.
